Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.521133 3.831260 4.188368 4.638828 5.206059 5.919063 6.926141
2025-02-02 3.218013 3.633061 4.154278 4.889707 5.969506 7.654967 11.022131
2025-02-09 2.966796 3.418185 4.013920 4.915558 6.391312 9.161199 17.587802
2025-02-16 2.798105 3.273231 3.924706 4.968823 6.852795 11.157857 39.592341
2025-02-23 2.600527 3.062788 3.707690 4.769566 6.782144 11.938503 116.804405
2025-03-02 2.494427 2.965400 3.638528 4.790831 7.144648 14.518983 NaN
2025-03-09 2.397240 2.870391 3.559481 4.776606 7.427679 17.657717 NaN
2025-03-16 2.291287 2.754224 3.435417 4.659857 7.429166 19.774721 NaN
2025-03-23 2.247386 2.723867 3.440650 4.779717 8.085903 31.039439 NaN
2025-03-30 2.150803 2.609768 3.302314 4.603177 7.856997 32.465424 NaN
2025-04-06 2.059489 2.499253 3.163032 4.410544 7.535037 31.381800 NaN
2025-04-13 1.991005 2.419737 3.069466 4.299391 7.433896 34.644712 NaN
2025-04-20 1.968869 2.410274 3.092562 4.431683 8.172955 132.217136 NaN
2025-04-27 1.962973 2.424857 3.156828 4.663231 9.473501 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.924363 2.386744 3.127781 4.686871 10.017277 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.892271 2.356955 3.110664 4.735006 10.749396 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.830432 2.277941 3.002007 4.554701 10.206710 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.800220 2.247590 2.978079 4.573982 10.773525 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.767673 2.212139 2.942747 4.561085 11.176020 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.724913 2.158945 2.872698 4.455082 10.944410 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.712330 2.153241 2.888084 4.563906 12.258090 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.666993 2.093475 2.801590 4.403520 11.516759 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.621179 2.032054 2.710532 4.227790 10.661004 NaN NaN